Deepening Cost-of-Living Crisis – Tinubu’s Offer of Respite is a Facade
Labour Leaders Must Convert Radical Rhetoric to Real Action.
Faced by a rapidly developing mass discontent over the devastated living standards of the vast majority as a result of its anti-poor capitalist policies ahead of the Presidential election in January 2027, the Bola Tinubu government has announced measures purportedly to alleviate mass suffering. This was obviously considered a necessity because a major pro-capitalist rival Atiku Abubakar, who had advocated the same neo-liberal capitalist policies as Tinubu ahead of the 2023 elections, suddenly executed a U-turn, promising to restore the petrol subsidy. This has resonated with the yearning of the working people, especially in the North, where the impact of the combination of ruinous policies of fuel subsidy removal and devaluation of the naira is more acutely felt given the historically higher population of poor people in the region than in the South. To be clear, it is not certain that Atiku will restore the subsidy. He is simply capitalizing on the frustration of the ordinary people to win votes.
By Peluola Adewale
Not prepared to forgo the daily serenades he receives as the blue-eyed boy of the champions of global capitalism, for passing where even devils fear to tread by fully carrying out a neo-liberal offensive against the poor in line with the dictates of the World Bank and IMF, President Tinubu could only present a farcical package as respite. With a monstrous behemoth of state apparatus at its disposal, including the support from about 33 out of 36 governors, to rig him into retaining the office, he is confident that he is not likely to pay dearly for refusing to restore the fuel subsidy. The threat of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) to go on strike over the cost-of-living crisis can, unfortunately, at best make scratch not a deep cut in his skin if the NLC leaders repeat their past failure to seriously prepare such strike actions. He has received millions of such threats in the past that turned out to be mere hot air.
So, the Minister of Finance Taiwo Oyedele was not ashamed to announce, on October 8, the government’s offer of “a discount on petrol dispensed by NNPC Limited for the next 30 days in the first instance”. And to assure their imperialist masters that the Tinubu government remains loyal, he quickly added, “it’s not a subsidy; the government is just saying we sell to you at cost”.
What does the said discount amount to? According to the NNPC in a statement on October 9, it is paltry N66-per-litre of petrol and it will last until October 31. At an NNPC filling station where the discount is implemented, petrol is sold for N1,339 per litre. So, at N66 per liter discount, a motorist has to buy more than 20 litres in order to gain at least an extra one litre! This is what the NNPC has praised itself to have done in the reaffirmation of “its commitment to working with the government and stakeholders to cushion the impact of rising fuel prices on households, businesses and the wider economy” (Punch October 9)
The reality is even much worse. The checks made by the Guardian newspaper in Abuja revealed that it was only motorists using the NNPC’s mobile app that paid N1,339 per litre. To other customers, petrol was selling N1,405 per litre (Guardian, October 12). In other words, motorists without smart phones or digital skills cannot benefit from the offer. Besides, many NNPC stations in Lagos do not even have authorization to administer the discount even to motorists with the app.
In any case, even if motorists can automatically access the discount at every NNPC filling station, it is a relatively small number of vehicle owners that would benefit. This is because from the data obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the NNPC has just about 900 outlets out of 22,681 registered filling stations in the country. This represents a paltry 4 percent.
So, what is the plan that covers every petrol station? According to Oyedele, “The government is negotiating a ceiling of 1,350 naira a litre on the ex-gantry or landing cost of petrol, to keep pump prices stable. Where costs rise above the ceiling, refiners and importers will carry the shortfall and recover it later, when crude prices or the exchange rate allow, without breaching the ceiling.”
This price modulation shows that refiners and importers would already make ridiculously super profits at 1,350 naira a litre such that when the costs purportedly rise above the ceiling, they really lose pretty little or nothing to maintain the price. In other words, this suggests an entrenched regime of price gouging that the government as an operator is even a part of. In any case, the about to be negotiated 1,350 naira a litre is a ceiling for the ex-gantry or landing cost, customers will pay more at the pump as the retailers add their own margins. So, there is no relief for the working people and the poor.
And for the CNG which is truly a much cheaper option than petrol, it is just about 120,000 vehicles have been converted for its usage throughout the country, according to the government itself. Besides, there are 91 CNG refueling stations, across 23 out of 36 states, where motorists can access the product, also according the government.
By and large, all that Tinubu government has done is a façade to give an appearance of caring about the deepening of the cost-of-living crisis. At present, the government apparently believes it has nothing to fear. But a tumultuous mass struggle can bring it to its knees, forcing out some concessions.
NLC Leadership Must Walk the Talk
If the NLC leadership are actually prepared to lead a serious struggle, after the expiration of their two-week ultimatum to the government on October 23, it cannot be ruled out that they can draw a huge number of the working people and youth to the streets, despite their past betrayals. Weighing against the increasing devastation of their living standards, a section of the working people and youth may hold their nose and join a call of labour for mass action. A show of seriousness may draw more and more to the streets. So, the ball is in the court of labour leadership.
In the October 7 Communique of its NEC where the two-week ultimatum was issued, the NLC leadership reaffirmed the “historical responsibility of the NLC to resist all forms of exploitation and oppression”, and called on “all affiliates, and progressive allies to remain on high alert and fully prepared to engage in decisive efforts against all anti-people policies”.
Ordinarily, this radical tone of the NLC leadership should have assured the working class people of their seriousness and commitment to the struggle, but similar rhetoric had been heard before, with nothing to show for it. The NLC leadership now have to walk the talk in order to be taken seriously. It is possible they have started feeling the pressure which is already brewing from the below. The fact that the public sector unions for the first time, since the return to the civil rule, declared a nationwide strike, albeit a phantom industrial action fixed for a Saturday and Sunday, without the recourse to the NLC is a public vote of no confidence on the central labour leadership.
To show seriousness, the NLC leadership by now should commence a preparation for the “remedial steps” they have promised to take should the government fail to meet its demands. We propose 48-hour warning general strike and mass protests, in the first instance, as the said “remedial steps” and the leadership begin mobilisation of workers, affiliates, civil society organisations and the masses towards this first action and beyond.
The NLC has demanded, among other things, that the government “reduce the price of petrol across the nation to what it was at the signing of the current national minimum wage in 2024” and “commence the process of renegotiating a new national minimum wage”. In other words, the NLC is calling for a reduction of the petrol price to about N670 in Lagos for instance. That was the price in July 2024.
The Trade Union Congress (TUC) on its part has not directly called for a reduction in fuel prices. It rather demanded that the naira be revalued to N800 to one dollar, something which it argued would force down the price of petrol to N600. On the minimum wage, it expected the formal negotiation to begin in February 2026. And, the TUC leadership has not given indication of any plan to call workers out for action.
We call for a meeting between the leaderships of the two trade union federations to discuss the possibility of harmonisng demands and organizing a serious joint struggle.
Reverse Ideological Capitulation
More importantly, the labour leadership need an introspection on why they have failed till date to lead a serious mass struggle against the anti-poor policies, including petrol subsidy removal, devaluation of the naira and criminal hike in school fees, which were introduced right from the beginning of the Tinubu government. The effects of these policies, which they refused to fight, explained why “the current N70,000 minimum wage was already destroyed by inflation before it was implemented,” as Joe Ajaero himself noted in the NLC’s Independence Day Statement. They also contribute to the overall deepening of the economic hardship faced by the working people.
We believe that this failure is primarily a result of the ideological capitulation of Labour under the current leadership, meaning that they don’t see any alternative outside the capitalist agenda. The same reason accounted for their uncritical support for Peter Obi, who unapologetically advocated petrol subsidy removal and naira devaluation ahead of the 2023 presidential election.
Indeed, TUC President Festus Osifo on the sideline of the ILO meeting in June 2023 reportedly “praised President Tinubu for the political will on the unification of foreign exchanges, contending that the steps taken by the Federal government would help in rejuvenating the nations’ economy” (Vanguard June 16, 2023). Unification of foreign exchanges technically and logically means devaluation of the naira.
The NLC President Ajaero was also recently reported to have “maintained that organised labour was not opposed to economic reforms but wanted the government to engage workers on how the reforms were implemented and their consequences” (This Day, October 6). Indeed, it would not be surprising if, as a result of the meeting with the government on October 22 to which it has been invited, the NLC leadership do not proceed with action after the expiration of the ultimatum.
Therefore, the reversal of the ideological capitulation is necessary if the labour leadership is serious about pursuing the struggle over the cost-of-living crisis to a logical end. With that, they would have the confidence that a mass struggle can force the Tinubu government to at least meet their demands or grant reasonable concessions. But such concessions, while welcome, would not last. It would also necessitate the Labour leaders’ support for the building of a mass working people’s political alternative that consistently fights against all capitalist anti-poor polices, side by side with the struggle for political power on the basis of a socialist programme. This forms the only basis for achieving “the collective struggle for a fair and equitable Nigeria”, for which the NLC in its October 7 Communique stressed that “the Nigerian working people must remain resolute, organised, and uncompromising”. If the Labour leaders are not willing to take this road, then the challenge is to build support for a change and for leaders who will fight for a socialist alterative to capitalism.