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Socialist Democracy Feb - Mar 2003

The Gulf is now in a serious nightmare, the incubus of monstrous American war machine has gripped the region. The Armageddon has concluded preparation to pay visit; blood shall flow. All for the oil. The chief warmonger, George Bush has deployed over 150,000 soldiers, airmen, sailors and marines out of the 250,000 billed by the Pentagon to wreck havoc in Iraq, to the Gulf. Tony Blair has sent 25,000 troops, a quarter of the entire British Army, and much of the Royal Navy as well. This was much before the United Nations weapon inspectors led by Hans Blix and Mohammed El Baradei of the International Atomic Energy agency submitted their first reports to the UN Security Council on January 27.

Hans Blix in his progress report on the two-month weapon inspection stated that Iraq had only reluctantly complied with the United Nation's latest demand to disarm and that there was no genuine co-operation from Iraq. He said further that Iraq left large gaps in its December 7 2002 12,000 page arms declaration. According to him Iraq had not accounted for up to 300 rocket engines and 650 chemical bombs. Moreover, Iraq blocked private interviews with the scientists and it balked at U2 surveillance flights over the whole country, Hans Blix stated. However, Blix was unable to corroborate the claims of the US that Iraq had rebuilt the weapon of mass destruction arsenal, saying that he could not give a categorical verdict. Equally, Mohammed El-Baradei in his report said that he had no proof of an Iraqi nuclear weapon programme. And, unlike Blix, he asked the Security Council to give more time for their work to be comprehensive.

These reports were seized upon by the US and British governments to step up their propaganda for war. To Bush, the whole essence of the weapon inspection is to justify the planned military action by all means and to probably carry along more countries particularly among those permanent members of the Security Council who are still not prepared to support immediate war.

Oil For Blood - The Actual Reason For The War

As at present, Bush has looked beyond the war; he has started thinking of the post Sadaam Iraq. Colin Powell has made clear that the US plans that its military will take the essential decisions in the event of winning a war. To sugar this pill the Bush administration said, in a report sent to the Congress on Tuesday January 21 2003, 'Should it become necessary to take military action against Iraq the United States, together with its coalition partners will play a role in helping to meet the humanitarian, reconstruction and administrative challenges facing the country in the immediate after the conflict'. The report further stated that, 'The US is fully committed to stay as long as necessary to fulfil these responsibilities, but is equally to leave as soon as the Iraqi people are in position to carry those responsibilities'.

There can be no doubt that the US's agenda is 'regime change' in Iraq. Although, the US has tried to make the world to believe that raison d'être for the war with the Iraq is the possession by Baghdad of weapons of mass destruction, in reality it is the demonstration of US's world position as the super power and its oil and strategic interests in the Middle East that has necessitated such military action. To holistically actualise these set goals, Saddam must be ousted, a pro-US regime be installed with heavy US financial, material and military backing. Bush is highly interested in the control of the massive Iraqi oil reserve , the second largest in the world, due to the foreseen loss of influence over Saudi Arabia with the possible ascendancy of the Islamic fundamentalists to power. Moreover, the US sees Sadaam as a fly in the ointment of the New World Order proclaimed by George Bush the first, hence he must be eliminated or removed.

It should be stated categorically stated that Sadaam Hussein is a ruthless dictator who deserves to be removed. Since his assumption of office in 1979, it has been a reign of terror. On coming to power Sadaam's first victims were Iraqi left-wingers. He has only brought poignant agony, hallowing sorrow and untold hardship to the Iraqi people. The country has never known peace. He plunged the country into 9-year US backed war with Iran (1980-88), the Gulf War 1990/1 and its attendant economic sanction that has ruined the economy and claimed hundreds of thousands of lives so far. The task of removing Sadaam does not lie in the hands of the US, but the Iraqi people themselves. This is because regime to be installed by the US would not be democratic but autocratic. It would be a matter of Satan replacing Lucifer.

Scott Ritter, a former chief UN weapons inspector in Iraq and an ex-US Marine officer has disproved the claim of the US government that Sadaam has weapons of mass destruction. He said that his team ascertained 90-95% level of destruction of Iraq's offensive weaponry. He stated further that 

" this figure takes into account the destruction or dismantling of every major factory associated with prohibited weapons manufacture all significant items of production equipment, and the majority of the weapons and agents produced by Iraq".

More so, according to him, if Iraq were rebuilding factories to produce new weapon, the evidence would readily be detectable since the country has been monitored via satellite and other means which has also made the procurement of necessary technology by Sadaam for such production extremely difficult.

Hypocrisy Of The Us

Moreover, it should be noted that North Korea another country, along with Iraq and Iran, that Washington has branded as part of the "axis of evil"

has begun the process of reactivating its nuclear programme after the Korean government chased out the UN weapons inspectors, caused their installation to be removed and repudiated the 1994 nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty. The Bush administration provoked this action by cutting aid to North Korea but now Washington has ruled out possibility of war in the reaction but diplomatic resolution. Quoting Colin Powell, he said, "We don't want to escalate any crisis, we don't want war". This betrays the hypocrisy of Iraq Bush as regards the nuclear programme or manufacturing of weapons as a basis for the war with Iraq.

The above stated view on the US hypocrisy was corroborated by Richard Butler, the immediate past chief UN weapon inspector when he accused the US of what he called shocking double standard. He said that the US motive to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction lacked credibility due to the failure of the US to deal with others on the same terms. He pointed tot he fact that some of the US allies like Israel, Pakistan and India have nuclear arsenals and have not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Israel has severally violated different UN resolutions. Moreover, according to him the US and other permanent members of the Security Council are themselves the possessors of the world's largest quantities of nuclear weapons.

Global Opposition Against The War

There is increasingly growing opposition against the war globally even in the United States, but George Bush has refused to grow goose pimples over that. He's determined to go to war and hopes that a quick "victory" will answer those opposed to war.

At Bush's backyard in Washington there have been two protests of at least 200,000 against the war. These protests took place on October 26 2002 and on January 18 2003. The 18 January protest involved nothing less than 500,000 in cities across the whole USA. Some of the slogans of the protesters are, "America, not Iraq a 'Rogue Nation'", "Disarm Bush", "No Blood for Oil" etc. The protest had as participants the relatives of the military personnel that have been deployed to the Gulf under the auspices of Military Family Speak Out and some veterans of the Gulf war: Veterans For Common Sense.

Internationally a mass anti-war demonstration took place in London, Britain last September with 400,000 protesters. But the size of this protest was overtaken in Florence, Italy, on November 9 2002 when1,000,000 (one million) demonstrators marched, the biggest so far. many other cities around the world have also seen mass protests. February 15 has been declared as international anti-war day of action. Demonstrations have already been planned to come up on that day in New York, London Berlin, Paris, Rome, Athens, Oslo, Amsterdam, Cairo, Stockholm, etc.

Three permanent members of the Security Council viz.: Russia, France and China along with Germany a rotational member have, so far, refused to support a war now. It has to be stated that this seemingly progressive stands of these permanent members of the council particularly Russia and France are not borne out kindness of heart or sympathy to the Iraqi people but as a result of their own economic interest that are at stake. 

They have huge investment in Iraqi oil industry and their own general interests to protect. They claim to be against the war, yet they refused to veto the portion of the resolution 1441 that empowers the US to go ahead alone after the report of weapons inspectors when the issue came up in November,2002 They are trying to maintain balance so that whether the US take over Iraq or not, there would be a basis to sustain their interests. From all indications they will not join the US in any fighting, but they may let a war go ahead. 

Meanwhile in line with resolutions, Collin Powell has started categorically that the US does not need the security council and the superpower will go to the war with its allies. However, in reality none of the tradition allies of the US except its traditional hand bag the Blair's Britain and Australia, is ready to join it in its predatory expedition. Indeed they are all very cautious about a war. Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, all allies of the US have registered their strong reservations about a war, fearing that their governments will be swept away by a tide of anti-imperialist protest if a war starts.

They were together with Syria, Jordan and Iran at a meeting of the Foreign Affairs ministers of the middle East countries. The resolution of meeting objects the war. They are all fearful of violent civil disobedience and the rise of Islamic fundamentalists, the development that may lead to the attempt to topple the moderate pro-west ruling oligarchy of Egypt, and Saudi Arabia in particular. In fact, in order to avoid the war, some of the countries have been asking Sadaam to leave the power voluntarily and there is thinking towards sponsoring a coup to topple Sadaam. However, either option, they are requesting international amnesty for Sadaam and his associates when he is out of the office.

The Effects Of The War

To the US war mongers, there is no going back in spite of the universality and the strength of the opposition against the war. Bush is waging this war with Blair. The war has been estimated to cost nothing less than $200 billion. Also the cost would depend on how long the war last. No country except the US will bear the bulk of this massive expenses. This is unlike the last Gulf War which cost $60 billion and was largely paid for by Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia and others. Who will actually pay for the war this time? It will be the ordinary working people of the US and Britain that will pay the price through spending cuts and tax rises.

The spectre of war along with the Venezuela crisis had already pushed up the price of oil in spite of the increase in the output quoted by 1.5 million barrels a day, the price of oil was still $33.98 as at last week of the January 2003, the actual war in the Gulf would skyrocket the price to the extent of pushing the world economy into serious recession. The workers and the poor would be the worst hit.

The US will not be insulated, it will have its own fair share of the effects of the war. Already, the US crude inventories have fallen near their lowest level in the last two decades. The current economic crisis in the US that has so far witnessed loss of 200,000 jobs between November and December 2002 alone will be surely aggravated. This together with any record of massive US casualties in the war, which is not unlikely, will arouse mass political opposition and social unrest in the country.

Israelis have started procuring gas masks in the anticipation of the attack on the country if US goes to war with Iraq. Actually, Sadaam will attack Israel if the US strikes in order to provoke crisis in the Middle East. The Palestinians have been looking up to Sadaam to avenge their ill-treatment by the Israeli ruling class. One of their placards during a protest against the war in read: "our beloved Sadaam, strikes Tel Aviv", Tel Aviv is the largest city of Israel. Iraq has also vowed to march on Kuwait if it is attacked by the US. This is because thousands of the Americans are stationed in Kuwait.

In the Middle East, the sights of corpses on the streets of Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq and the fellow feelings for the suffering masses of Iraq would arouse anger among the Arabs and aggravate their deep seated hatred for the US and the West. Besides, the resultant tumultuous social unrest in the Middle East, this would lead more people into desperation, hence the increase in number of the terrorists and the justification for their action. Thus, there may be terrorist attacks on the US and Britain which may not however draw much sympathy as that of September 11.

The War And Religious Crisis In Nigeria

Some religious volatile countries like Nigeria may not be immune to the effect of the war. If the war break out, Nigeria may boil, there may be violent protests in the northern parts of the countries that may degenerate to killing and maiming of people, particularly the southerners and Christians and to touching of public and private property particularly the churches and the American and British property within their reach. The attack on the churches would be as a result of the misconception that the US is a Christian country. The extent of the retaliation from southerners and Christians may set the country on fire. In deed, considering the peculiarity of this transitional period in Nigeria, the violence may be politically motivated, more so, since religion is a means of satisfying political end.

There Must Be Anti War Protests In Nigeria

It is imperative now for the Nigeria Labour Congress and National Conscience Party as an anti-imperialist political platform, to lead the students, workers, the masses, Christians, Muslims, the northerners and the southerners into a nation-wide protest against the imperialist war in Iraq. Besides the need for the solidarity with the suffering working people of Iraq in the spirit of internationalism and the need to avert the looming global economic catastrophe that will have the working people at the receiving end, the character of such a protests led by the NLC and NCP will prevent the anti-war movement developing a religious, particularly Islamic, character. Even if any demonstration is organised by any Islamic group thereafter the risk of it being turned into an inter-religious crisis would have been greatly reduced. In alternative, an anti-war coalition may be formed to carry out this historic task. It should be stated that the anti-war protests must be linked to the overall struggle against capitalism and imperialism. War, like poverty, hunger, homelessness, joblessness etc. are products of the horrible capitalism.

Continued ...