TINUBU’S ECONOMIC WONDERLAND: Combating the Lies and Half-truths

If we are to live by the glowing and self-congratulatory messages of the Tinubu government, it would mean Nigeria is on the road to Eldorado. But reality and facts are stubborn. While government officials sit in their lush offices, spending away Nigeria’s money for their cosy yet extravagant lifestyles, just to dole out poverty-increasing policies, the mass of workers and poor people continue to sink deeper into the abyss of poverty and want.

By Kola Ibrahim

This reality is clearly depicted by the conduct of President Tinubu and his cabinet. While Nigeria spent close to N250 billion for the comfort of the President’s and Vice President’s families between 2023 and 2024, the majority of households continue to experience an unprecedented increase in cost of living. But according to the president, he has performed excellently. Definitely not through improved living conditions for the majority, but of course through implementation of structural adjustment policies (otherwise called market reforms), as dictated by global agencies of capitalism, the IMF and the World Bank.
In his various public engagements on the nation’s economy, President Tinubu displayed defiance to public outcry to his administration’s policies, while giving a false hope of an improving economy. Likewise, the coordinating minister of the economy, Wale Edun, in a recent forum, stated that the economic policies of the government have improved the economy, giving succour to Nigerians. According to Edun, “all economic indicators are moving in the right direction, and most importantly, the cost of living is gradually improving”. He premised his self-praise on the so-called economic growth, ‘falling’ inflation, rising government revenue (20% increase in 2024) and ‘stabilising’ exchange rate. But this is just a one-sided appraisal that leave much out (NAN, 27/03/2025).
While the Tinubu government claimed that Nigeria’s fiscal health was in dire state, relying on debt, prior to his inauguration, the reality is that Nigeria’s debt has increased significantly under Tinubu government. This is despite the significant increase in revenue, mostly driven by subsidy removal, devaluation of the naira, and increasing taxation of citizens.
According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s debt profile increased to N144.7 trillion (the federal government’s share is 92%) in December 2024 from N87.4 trillion in June 2023, a 65% increase in just one and half years. Of course, due to naira devaluation, which saw naira-to-dollar exchange rate increase from N754/$1 to N1564/$1, domestic debts reduced in dollar terms to $48.4 billion in December 2024 from $70.3 billion. But this is just a façade to cover up for the massive debt increase. In the real sense, domestic debts are better measured in the currency in which they are procured, in this case, naira. On the other hand, external debt, has increased in both dollar and naira terms. Between June 2023 and December 2024, external debt increased from $43.2 billion to $45.8 billion (about a 10% increase) (DMO, https://www.dmo.gov.ng/debt-profile/total-public-debt). However, if we factor naira devaluation into the external debt increase, it means Nigeria will now be paying 70.3 trillion naira as against 33.3 trillion naira in June 2023, when a dollar exchanged for 754 naira.
But Nigeria’s indebtedness is better measured by its impact on the national budget. In 2024, the country spent N8.27 trillion on debt servicing, more than twice combined budgets for education and healthcare (N3.87 trillion) (BudgIt, 2024). In the 2025 budget, the N14.32 trillion is to be spent on debt servicing, is more than twice the combined budgets for education and healthcare (N5.9 trillion). Meanwhile, the 2024 budget implementation performance was only 43% of approved budget, with capital budget performance at 25%. This means that most of the capital funding for education and healthcare were not implemented while all the allocations for debt servicing were utilised. Worse still, a significant part of the budget went to a tiny clique of politicians and big business through over bloated overhead and inflated contracts.
All of these analyses show that the so-called reduction in debt is a ruse. Indeed, debts have not only increased, but their servicing has only further undermined funding for basic social services, especially education and healthcare. It is therefore not surprising that public education and health institutions have significantly increased service charges, further taking education and healthcare out of the reach of working-class family and the poor.
Edun, and his principal’s (President Tinubu’s) claim on fall in inflation is also false. According to NBS, food inflation reached 23.51% in February 2025, year-on-year, and a monthly increase of 1.67 over January 2025 inflation. To give a better picture, food inflation increased by 97% between November 2023 and November 2024. This is more graphically explained by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data: “the average price of 1kg beans brown (sold loose) stood at N2,720.96. This indicates a rise of 224.37% in price on a year-on-year basis from N838.85 recorded in November 2023 … Agric eggs medium size (12 piece) experienced significant price increases year on year by 135.74% from N1,202.18 in November of last year (2023) to N2,833.97 in November 2024. There was also a notable price increase of onion bulb by 174.65% on a year-on-year basis from N683.78 in November 2023 to N1,878.00 in November 2024.” (Nairametrics, 23/01/2025. Food prices soar by 97% in one year, South-East records highest increase – NBS Report )
Given the continuous rise in inflation into the first quarter of 2025, it is safe to conclude that costs of foodstuffs have maintained their soaring trend. While there may be some episodic relief in foodstuffs’ prices, especially agricultural goods, as a result of seasonal change in supply, the underlining factors, i.e. high cost of production and transportation, continue to drive soaring inflation. For processed food products, prices have not witnessed such relief.
The continuous rise in inflation, caused principally by the Tinubu government policies have also impacted heavily on cost of living. While the government claimed to have increased minimum wage to N70,000 from N30,000 in 2024, this has not resolved cost of living crisis. According to research by Proshare, the N70,000 minimum wage currently has a real value of N10,000 in 2011 when the minimum wage was N18,000 (Proshare, 17/02/2025. Cost of Living in Nigeria)
Furthermore, the accountancy firm PwC estimated in January that “the recent increase in minimum wage only covers 4.1% of the population, highlighting the limited impact of this measure on alleviating poverty and providing financial relief to the majority of Nigerians” (Nairametrics 23/01/2025, Inflation: 13 million more Nigerians at risk of falling below poverty line in 2025 – Report). This is one of the reasons that in addition to fighting for a decent national minimum wage, Labour and workers must always resist anti-poor neo-liberal policies and fight for adequate funding of public education, health care and other social services so that they can be accessible for ordinary people.
A 2023 report by Proshare revealed that the average cost of living for a family of four in Nigeria is N150,000 excluding house rent (Proshare, 17/10/2023, Cost of Living in Nigeria: The Pains and Gains of a Representative Household Budget). Given the sharp rise in inflation in the last 15 months, clearly the cost of living must have gone much higher. Yet, the overall income of most Nigerians, especially workers, peasants, artisans and small businesses have remained practically stagnant, while real incomes have actually fallen. It is not surprising that World Bank, which is one of the capitalist multilateral institutions that approved Tinubu’s market reform, admitted that number of Nigerians who are in poverty has increased from 104 million in 2023 to 129 million in 2024, a 24-percent increase in one year (BusinessDay 25/01/2025). This is even an understatement given that the yardsticks used are mostly skewed to mask the impact of the neo-liberal structural adjustment policies.
Central to the current economic maelstrom and cost of living crisis is the implementation of neo-liberal, market reform of the Tinubu government, especially removal of subsidy on petrol, a major lifeline for most Nigerians; devaluation of the naira; hike in electricity tariff, and hike in taxes. These coupled with allocation of more of public wealth to a tiny clique is behind the current crisis. Attempt by the Tinubu government to claim credit for the temporary and marginal reduction in petrol price and prices of a few food items, and short term stability of naira is misplaced. The reality is that the introduction of neo-liberal market policies has caused a massive hike in cost of living over the last 19 months such that a short-term reduction hardly makes fundamental impact.
All of these point to an important missing link: the role of the labour movement in leading a mass resistance. No doubt, Nigerians, especially working people and the youth, have not been quiet. From the start of the implementation of anti-people policies of the Tinubu government, youth and working people have mounted resistance. This is demonstrated by the spontaneous rise of the #EndBadGovernance (and #EndHunger) Movement across the country. Even though the Tinubu government launched a virulent attack on these movements, they have refused to go away. It is therefore not surprising that the Tinubu government has gone on a repression spree, picturing itself as a civilian dictatorship.
Unfortunately, the energy of youth and the rank and file of workers have not met similar decisive action from the leadership of labour movement, especially the central labour centres (the NLC and TUC) and their affiliates. In fact, the labour leaders have capitulated to Tinubu government’s market reforms, only issuing worthless statements when it catches their fancy.
Combating Tinubu’s propaganda machine, aimed at normalizing mass misery through its policies is necessary. But this should be a part of the wider mass resistance against these policies, and the capitalist system, which hand over public resources to a tiny rich few. Consequently, the movement against the Tinubu’s market reform should be linked the struggle for a socialist transformation of Nigeria, where public resources will be used for the benefits and interests of the public.