Democratic Socialist Movement (DSM)

For struggle, Solidarity and Socialism in Nigeria

Newspaper of the DSM

Chapter Four Continued...

MILITARY COUPS

As shown above, the interim or transitional government advocated by The Patriots and others does not in any sense provide or represent a credible alternative to the prevailing socio-political rots. Curiously however, The Patriots believe that their proposals on the interim or transitional government were made to avoid a situation where the military may have to stage a coup in consequence of the massively rigged and manipulated exercise called the 2003 general elections. Hear The Patriots: "We end this statement by appealing to all political leaders in the country to avoid any action capable of destabilizing the nation. In particular, all political leaders should resolve to maintain their determination that Nigeria does not welcome any intervention by the military in the government of this nation. However serious any political crisis may be, our political leaders have the capacity to resolve it without the armed intervention of our military".

For a country that has been under military governance for almost two-thirds of its post independence period, the fear or option of a military coup is one fear or option that can not be lightly dismissed. Arising from the abject failure of the current civilian governments across the country, a growing number of people, sometime in frustration, do express the opinions that things were better under the military than now. Sadly, there is an element of truth in this. In fact, in the aftermath of the 2003 general elections, certain layers of the ruling class virtually called for military to intervene. Even, some on the left organisations, like NCP, would say that should a military coup occur against this government, they will not lift a finger to fight such a coup.

Remarkably however, despite the fact that all the conditions, which in the past had led to military coups exit in higher proportions today, there has been no coup. It may be pertinent to answer the following questions to explain why there is no coup.

(1) Could there have been a military coup against the Obasanjo's led civilian rule? (2) Going by Nigeria's experience, does the military offer any credible alternative to the prevailing unjust capitalist order? (3) What, if any are the prospects for a junior officers led, radical coup which might be different in outlook from all past military governments and leaders? (4) Is it true as The Patriots asserted that "however serious a political crisis may be, our leaders have the capacity to resolve it without the armed intervention of .....military"?

Each time in Nigeria's past history, when elections had been massively rigged and manipulated like that of the April/May 2003 general elections, a military coup had subsequently taken place to remove governments formed on the basis of such farcical exercise. We should therefore ask: Does the conditions which provoked military coups in the aftermath of the massively rigged and manipulated general elections of 1964 and 1983 exist in Nigeria of 2003? Put bluntly, will the military live up to tradition and stage a coup to terminate the President Obasanjo-led civil rule before the end of its constitutional tenure?

In many respects, the socio-political conditions of the Obasanjo led civil rule bear more similarities to that of its infamous predecessors between October 1960 to January 1966 and October 1979 to December 1983. Just like then, living today is a permanent nightmare for the overwhelming majority of the working people. And talking of electoral manipulations and frauds by the powers that be, the 2003 general elections, by its sheer scale, depth and varieties of manipulations and rigging easily emerged as the most brazen and prodigious electoral robbery executed yet by any incumbent civilian government in post independent Nigeria.

According to General Ibrahim Babangida, Nigeria's erstwhile military president, the prevailing anger, frustration and hostility of the vast majority of Nigerians towards the incumbent civilian rulers across the country, constitute the kind of prime climate under which military coups are born. Hear Babangida, Nigeria's most successful coup plotter: "We in the military waited for opportunity. There was the media frenzy about how bad the election was, massively rigged, corruption, the economy gone completely bad, threat of secession by people who felt aggrieved. There was frustration within society and it was not unusual to hear statements like, the worst military dictatorship is better than this democratic government........You see, we are very smart people. We don't intervene when we know the climate is not good for it or the public will not welcome it. We wait until there is frustration in the society........And then there is a demonstration welcoming the redeemers.........We couldn't have done it without collaborators in the civil society. Collaborators in the media, collaborators among people who have the means". (This House Has Fallen by Karl Maier, pages 58 and 59).

Remarkably, all the key elements enunciated by Babangida as the background to past military coups are very prominent in Nigeria today. Dazed by the colossal nature of the electoral manipulations and rigging that formed the basis of Obasanjo's "victory" in the April 19, 2003 presidential election, General Buhari, erstwhile presidential candidate of the ANPP had openly called for a "bloodless military coup". Living under the false illusion that its "landslide" victory at the poll was an endorsement by the masses of its pro-rich, anti-poor, neo-liberal economic policies, the Obasanjo regime, less than a month in office for his second tenure increased the prices of fuel by 54%. The working masses responded with a 9-day monster nationwide general strikes and protests! It should be stressed that the above mentioned protest was the longest of its type in post-independent Nigeria, apart from the fact that it had involved more people than at any other time in the past.

Given all these factors, why has there been no "smart" military officers to take advantage of these opportunities? There are two factors mainly responsible for this situation. First, the sordid past of the military is still fresh in memory. Many could still remember that both the economy and the polity became so bad under the military to such an extent that people were saying that any form of civilian government will be better. One of the usual reasons often raised by the military to stage coups is the need to preserve national unity and Nigeria's corporate existence. However, by the time it was forced to quit power, its overall policies and conducts had led to the heightening of the nationality/religious tensions and crisis.

Thus, if today a military coup led by officers of the northern extraction as in the past, were to take place, it will most likely be received with the highest degree of suspicion generally in the south. Such a development could accelerate rather than stem the tide of nationality/religious crisis ravaging the country. It will certainly lead to an escalation of the clamor for secession by many nationalities particularly in the Niger Delta and the Yoruba dominated part of the country. The story could be easily made of how the northern oligarchy allegedly were in power when most of the rot presently troubling Nigeria first set in and how the regime of a "redeemer" in the person of Saint Obasanjo has now been terminated so that the rots which the messiah is trying to cure can continue to flourish.

In this kind of prevailing socio-political mood, anti-northern, pro-secession mood can rapidly flourish. This, if it should be stressed, is one of the factors presently militating the prospect of a coup led by officers of northern extractions. On the basis of the political arrangement within the ruling PDP, the next president is to come from the geographical area called north. This also is one factor that may hold in check elements within the officers' ranks from the north that may be wishing to stage a coup.

One of the factors which in the past made coup staging technically easy was often the domination of officers ranks and strategic posts within the armed forces by elements from the same nationality and sometimes childhood mates and friends. For self-preservation motive, the Obasanjo regime on coming to power took steps that radically altered the leadership hierarchy and positions within the forces. One, it effected compulsory retirement of all officers that had held political appointments during the preceding military administrations. Two, it ensured that the leading and strategic posts were shared amongst officers of different nationalities to such an extent which made it impossible for officers from the same nationality to dominate strategic sectors of the forces. This, in a way, has also raised the technical scales for prospective coup plotters, apart from the fact that officers of the Yoruba extraction are not likely to lead a coup that will terminate the tenure of their own "son of the soil". The officers from the south-east and south-south do not even have sufficient influence and strength within the forces to attempt to lead a coup at the present time.

So, notwithstanding the abundant presence of most of the factors, which in the past had provoked military coups, the Obasanjo regime may undeservedly emerge as the first civilian government in post independent Nigeria to complete a back-to-back two terms in office.

Unfortunately however, the mere prospect of the current set of civilian rulers being in power till year 2007 represents a big nightmare to the vast majority of the working masses economically and politically. The Obasanjo led civilian rule has shown beyond any reasonable doubt that it is as corrupt and anti-masses as its civilian and military predecessors. The major economic policies of all the civilian government such as privatisation, commercialisation, mass retrenchment exercise, incessant hike in fuel prices, etc across the country, in the past four years and in the few months spent in their second term of office, are all such that will make the rich richer and the poor poorer. The political policies and observance of fundamental rights of citizens are fundamentally on the same wave length with those of the military years.

Under the guise of seeking to solve Nigeria's intractable economic crisis, the capitalist governments across the country/parties are steadily putting into private estates/individuals and corporations strategic and profitable public sectors and ventures of the economy, in the name of privatisation and trade liberalisation. Health care and educational care just as the case with other necessary social services have all been left in the hands of the highest prophet of capital - money. There is absence or so much under-funding of social services to such an extent that these public institutions have virtually collapsed. Gone are the days when public hospitals, schools, telephone, railways, etc are seen as symbols of excellence. Today, they have largely become objects of ridicule, while a few profit motivated hospitals, schools, transportation, etc, are presented as the ultimate achievement of humanity. To Obasanjo, and his partners in crime, the fact that the services being rendered by private hospitals, schools, etc are far too inadequate and unaffordable to the overwhelming majority of the working people is irrelevant.

Expectedly, their politics and conducts are as pro-rich and anti-poor as their economic policies. Right from day one, they had never left anyone in doubt that they are in power primarily to serve the selfish interests of members of the thieving capitalist class. While the constitution provides for a relatively more liberal provisions on how new parties can emerge, the capitalist parties government of the PDP, ANPP and AD on their own decided through the Electoral Act, to devise rules and regulations which can only be met by plain looters and capitalist rogues. When the Supreme Court ruled that the 1999 constitutional provisions are the only criteria necessary for the emergence of a new political party, the capitalist politicians across the parties introduced a new range of prohibitive fees called "processing fees" as preconditions for contesting elections. Again, the court ruled that the so-called "processing fees" are unconstitutional and illegal.

Therefore, the fact that the conducts of all these capitalist parties, in all areas where they had upper hand, leave much to be desired in the 2003 general elections merely confirmed their predetermined agenda to perpetuate themselves in power at all cost. Now, the elections are over. The pay time is here! Everywhere, everyday, across the country/parties, policies and plans which only help to push the living conditions of the masses further towards the edge of abyss are being executed.

NATIONALITY QUESTION

Under colonialism and under the past civilian and military governments, it was the tradition to suppress, forcibly if necessary, every manifestation of nationality and religious aspirations. Regrettably, this time hallowed, infamous and ineffectual approach is what still dominates the central planks of the political strategies of the current civilian capitalist rulers. Thus, when there were riots over the implementation of Sharia in the core north states, the Obasanjo regime simply rolled out military tanks to "quell" the riots. There was armed conflicts between the Tivs and Jukuns; between Ifes and Modakekes; between Aguleris and Amuleris, etc. What to do? Roll out military tanks. There is growing protests and agitations by the masses of the Niger Delta for better deal from the oil wealth. How do we respond to this challenge? Pull out military tanks and totally crush and destroy a town called Odi! This should be enough to send a strong message to all the working people of the Niger Delta in particular, that this administration shall brook no nonsense, (just as the Abacha military junta brook no nonsense when it executed Ken Saro Wiwa and 8 other Ogoni nationalist leaders), whenever anybody or group of bodies decided to take actions which are capable of disrupting the flow of oil which is the main stay of the capitalist elites of the most dominant nationalities - the Hausa-Fulani, the Yoruba and the Igbo nationalities.

Though supposedly based on a constitution, the current civilian rulers are steadily acting more and more in an arbitrary, military fashion. This, we should point out, is not only in respect of major political and national issues and conflicts but also in every other way. For instance, whenever government at any level, in any part of the country feels that some persons built or occupy illegal structures or there is illegal occupation of public premises, instead of employing due process of law to rectify such errors, there is an increasing tradition of simply using military and police force to achieve the whims of the prevailing power holders.

Thus, the Lagos State Government sometime about 11.30 p.m. on August 16, 2003 ordered an armoured tank invasion and occupation of Ojota New Garage, ostensibly to prevent an alleged intra union conflicts between members of the transport workers union operating from the park from degenerating to an extent where it can become a threat to public peace. The truth was the exact opposite of the reasons given by the Lagos State government. In the first instance, there was no physical fights by or between the unions and members of the transport workers operating from the New Garage, Ojota. Yes, there were some disputes between the transport unions operating from the park on certain issues and regulations. However, the government action was in actual fact a measure taken in its ploy to sell the public land upon which the park/garage is located to some private individuals and corporations.

The occupants were given a three-day notice on Thursday within which to vacate the premises in issue. On the night of Saturday following a contingent of armoured tank led-mobile policemen were mobilised to invade and occupy the park in issue. In the process, over 250 persons and vehicles were detained and impounded. This, aside from rape, brutalities and looting unleashed by the invading policemen on the hapless and helpless victims of this civilian brigandage. Increasingly, many could not see any fundamental difference between this government and its military predecessors. And herein precisely lies a grave danger to Nigeria's so-called nascent democracy.

THE MILITARY

The increasingly militaristic, dictatorial characters of the current civilian rulers are a complete confirmation of the fact that there is no credible military solutions to Nigeria's crisis. To a large extent, part of the lies told by different military regimes to prolong their stay in power was the need to bequeath an "endurig" democratic legacy to the country. In this process, the country was turned into a political laboratory where all sorts of bizarre and silly experiments were performed in the name of democracy. The current civilian regime, just like that of the Alhaji Sheu Shagari's led Second Republic, was a product of an elaborate military transition programmes. Consequently, the corruption and the increasing authoritarian/dictatorial degeneration of the Obasanjo's led civilian rule, is first and foremost a confirmation of the failure of military options.

In its almost 30 years in power, the most outstanding "achievements" of military rule are ruined economies, unprecedented mass poverty, corruption, increasing social problemss such as armed robbery, prostitution, etc, and escalation of ethno-religious crisis and conflicts. Under military rule, there was complete absence of democratic rights as formally granted under the 1999 capitalist constitution. Then, there were only two ways through which serious issues and opponents were dealt with. Invariably, this was done either through military suppression and/or elimination of individual leaders of belligerent associations and movements. The military suppression of the MOSOP agitations and the callous but baseless execution of Ken Saro Wiwa and 8 other Ogoni nationalists as well as the assassinations of Kudirat Abiola and others fighting for the actualisation of the annulled June 12 1993 presidential election were the most standard way of checkmating political opposition, outside the routine measure of indefinite detentions of opponents without charge or trial.

Suffice to note, the irrepressible clamour and agitations for civil rule was then largely fueled by the increasing number of people that were coming to the inescapable conclusion that the military has no positive solutions to Nigeria's socio-economic problems. To therefore return the country to another era of military rule would not in any sense represent a positive development. For the working masses, this prospect represents an absolute disaster.

Under the prevailing neo-colonial, capitalist arrangement, within the framework of the current overbearing global capitalist liberalisation, which demands nothing short of the sales of all the key and strategic sectors of the economy to private individuals and corporations, a military rule would most likely move in the direction of total cancellation of the limited democratic rights contained in the 1999 constitution and not their expansion. This it will do in its morbid bid to suppress the mass agitations that will certainly grow with time over the capitalist economic and political system.

A RADICAL COUP?

But, is it given that only a military regime which ab initio will decisively side with imperialism and capitalism can emerge in Nigeria? Can't there be a radical coup, led by junior officers, which may have the intention to carry out pro-masses economic and political policies? Theoretically, this prognosis cannot be totally dismissed although it is not the most likely development at this point in time. The radical/junior officers coups which became prominent in the seventies and first part of the eighties, in Africa and other third world countries, took place against certain historical background which presently is not in existence.

Then, the junior officers were not only repelled by the utter corruption of the political leaders, including their military officers, they equally drew inspiration from certain countries where planned economy was the dominant economic features. Although already ossified and chocking from its bureaucratic strangulation, the planned economics of the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, Cuba, etc, were still able to operate societies where there was free education and health care at all levels, where there was no unemployment, where one form of housing or the other were provided for the masses. In short, there was then a certain degree of mass consciousness that an alternative economic and political climate different from the desolate ones offered by capitalism exists.

For genuine socialists, particularly followers of Lenin and Trotsky (the foremost leaders of the first and only genuine, proletarian revolution in history, before the conservative, counter-revolutionary regime of Stalin and its followers emerged the dominant political forces first in Russia and subsequently within the international Marxist organisations), the collapse of the Stalinist economies is something that had long been predicted, particularly by Trotsky in his classic work titled "Revolution Betrayed" which was published in 1936. Trotsky had explained that the contradictions of a publicly owned and planned economy run in arbitrary bureaucratic manner cannot be indefinitely maintained. He had predicted that the contradictions could only be resolved in one way or the other: either the working class carries out a political revolution by removing bureaucratic rule and in its place institute a genuine workers democratic control and management of the entire economy and polity or if not a capitalist counter-revolution at some stage is inevitable.

In the face of growing economic and social crisis, the bureaucratic leaders of the countries then operating planned economies with the exception of Cuba, more and more moved in the direction of quasi capitalist methods and policies to outright capitalist ones until their full and formal adoption of free market economy in the late eighties and early nineties. On the one hand, Trotsky's and Marxists' prognosis that planned economy cannot survive in the absence of genuine workers democratic control and management has been confirmed. In this respect, the collapse of the Stalinist economies and political apparatuses of repression is like the removal of a scarecrow inhibiting and preventing the adoption of genuine socialist ideas and methods by the working masses worldwide.

Unfortunately however, this deserved collapse has taken place by creating a certain negative consciousness about socialism in the minds of most working people across the world. Thus, unlike in the past, an average junior officer in the armed forces today would most likely be disposed to ideas on how to individually solve his or her economic and career problem, rather than seeking "idealistic" "socialist" solution. However, under the growing impact of the intractable capitalist crisis and the concomitant working masses' resistance which this crisis will increasingly provoke, the development of radical ideas amongst certain layers of officers and junior officers especially within the armed forces which will to a certain extent reflect the general radicalisation of the masses is not ruled out. But whether such consciousness crystallised into a successful radical/junior officers led coup, against the background of the highly bourgeoisified command structures of the armed forces and the fact that no junior officers led-coup had ever succeeded in coming to power in all the history of military putsches in the country, is another thing entirely. But even if such a radical junior officers led-coup succeeded in overthrowing the government and instituted its own rule, what are the prospects that such a government will not use the military tactics it used in coming to power to attempt to foist its own solutions on the masses? What is the guarantee that such a military regime will not capitulate to imperialism and capitalism just like Jerry Rawlings in Ghana did after coming to power on the basis of pro-masses rhetorics?

The guarantees, if the truth must be told, are very nil. Of course, it has to be said that under a deep social crisis, even bourgeois elements, either military or civilian, can be compelled to take radical socio-economic and political measures. But how deep and for how long any such radical policies persist is another issue entirely. Only the taking of power by the working class can guarantee lasting measures being taken in furtherance of the interests of the working people.

The military institution in origin and orientation is inherently autocratic. The same zeal with which it takes to implement beneficial pro-masses policies will be used to force down on the masses their own whims and caprices. There is therefore no short cut towards the economic and political emancipation of the masses from capitalist exploitation and oppression outside the conscious, organised democratic mass struggles of the working people themselves. In comparison with working class solutions, every other economic and political option will be seen as futile by an increasing layers of the masses.

In this regard, it will be a disastrous set back for the working masses today if the military were to come back to power. And unfortunately, it is not true or correct to say as The Patriots stated that "however serious any political crisis may be, our political leaders have the capacity to resolve it without the armed intervention of our military". To say the least, this prognosis preaches nothing but a false sense of security. Every act of corruption, mis-rule and suppression of democratic rights, etc, can only contribute towards the alienation of the masses from the capitalist civilian rulers and civil rule. Increasingly, every anti-masses, pro-rich policies of the capitalist rulers will be met with greater resistance by the masses themselves. There will be several opportunities for the working masses to remove the capitalist elements from power, change their unjust system and in its place institute a pro-masses, democratic socialist order which will make the satisfaction of the economic and political needs of the working masses the central features of governance.

If however, in the medium and especially in the long run, the pro-capitalist outlook of the labour leaders made the emergence of a viable pan-Nigerian working peoples party impossible, if the prevailing stalemate, ding-dong between the capitalist class and the working masses continue indefinitely, then, it is not ruled out that at a certain point the option of a military coup which seems unpopular today may be seen by some layers of the capitalist class nationally and internationally as the best way out of Nigeria's deepening socio-economic logjam. A large scale escalation of ethnic-religious crisis in certain or many parts of the country and a seeming helplessness or impotence of the Obasanjo's civilian regime or that of its capitalist successors to effectively tackle or resolve the conflicts might provide the needed excuse to stage a military coup, as usual, to "keep Nigeria one" and also to maintain "political stability".

Chapter One: Background

Chapter Two: The 2003 Elections

Chapter Three: The Four Years Of Civil Rule

Chapter Four Political Perspectives

Chapter Five: Nationality Question

Chapter Six: A Working Class Solution Needed

Chapter Seven: Deregulation And Fuel Price Hike

Appendix: General Strike Against Fuel Price Rises The Lesson For The Working Masses